SOI values remain very positive
Dave McRae, Queensland Climate Change Centre of Excellence, 03/11/10.
Historically, when the SOI has been in a 'Consistently Positive' phase at the end of October, 60 to 70% of the time rainfall has been above the long-term median throughout much of Queensland during November to January. The main exception to this is the far-west of Queensland where rainfall has been above the long-term median only 50 to 60% of the time.
The last time there was a Consistently Positive SOI phase at the end of October was in 2008. Other years since 1950 that have had the same SOI phase at the end of October include: 1955, 1962, 1964, 1970, 1971, 1973, 1974, 1975, 1983, 1988, 1989, 1996, 1998 and 2000. It may be useful to find out what Queensland rainfall and pasture conditions were like during November to January in each of those years.
When using a climate forecast you should remember that the probability, or percent chance, of something occurring is just that – a probability. For example, if there is a 70% probability of above-median rainfall, then there is also a 30% chance of below median rainfall. It does not mean that rainfall will be 70% more than the median.